This over time would lesson the State Councils
role in directing the day to day functions of the banks and eventually do away
with the credit plan. Banks would be able to allocate resources appropriately
and to set their own interest rates.
2) Improve the Central Bank’s management
of monetary aggregates.
This over time would improve the consistency of
banking laws by ensuring that they are used and would also remove policy
lending from the banks and put it into the budget where it should be. This
would also allow for the development of the Central Bank as an institution.
3) Transform state commercial banks into
real commercial banks.
This step would help to free the banks from the
current crises of bad debt and allow them to loan money to the newly emerging
private sector.
4) Improve governance, diversify ownership and lower
subsidies for SOEs.
In the short term this would include implementing
an accounting system and independent audits, give autonomy to the managers,
getting rid of unviable businesses and restructuring those SOEs that can be.
5) Transfer social services to the
government.
This would reduce the burden on newly
restructured enterprises. Over time this would allow for a national system to
be implemented.
Conclusions
In comparison with other countries undergoing
transition from centrally-planned economic systems, China had the luxury of
initiating its reforms at a time when it faced no macroeconomic or serious
political crisis. It was able to adopt a two-track approach to economic
reform: China continued state control of existing enterprises while loosening
economic controls enough to permit growth of a new, nonstate sector. This was
possible in part because the inefficient state sector was a small share of the
economy, compared to most socialist nations.
China’s reform experience thus far has been one
of “enabling” reform, allowing “marketization” instead of forcing
“privatization,” getting government to “step out of the way” of the flows of
commerce. The results have been good to excellent in the productive sectors,
but the reform has not yet succeeded in the fiscal and monetary sectors, which
are the domains of government. Here the government can’t step out of the way;
it must build the proper tools and structures to manage these sectors.[39]
It is in these areas, and in the efforts to reduce administration, dismantle
SOEs, and provide an adequate social insurance system for displaced workers and
affected citizens that China faces its true reform challenges.
To further evaluate how far China has come down
the path of economic transition, we look to a definition of transition used by
the World Bank, which describes these three components:
·
Liberalization:
freeing prices, trade and entry to markets from state controls, while
stabilizing the economy. Stabilization is an essential component to
liberalization.
·
Clarifying
property rights and privatizing them where necessary. Requires re-creating the
institutions that support market exchange and shape ownership, and especially
the rule of law.
·
Reshaping social
services and the social safety net to ease the pain of transition while
propelling the reform process forward.
Examination of the Chinese experience shows that
liberalization has taken place to some degree, though much reform of prices,
trade and markets is still to be done. However, privatization and the
assignment of property rights are still very undeveloped, and the most
difficult parts of transition ahead are dependent on a still-unachieved
transfer of the social safety net from enterprise-based to government control.[40]
Were China to continue to grow at the rates of
the last two decades, it would surpass the United States as the world’s largest
economy in less than twenty years. Though some tapering off in the growth rate
is expected, China, with its sheer size and dynamism, is emerging as one of the
world’s economic powers. The reform policy choices it makes during this period
of transition thus have not only domestic but international significance, as
China’s domestic economic and social stability will be felt internationally.
The rest of the world has ample reason for assisting China in seeing these
reforms through peacefully. Opening of economic activity within China and with
the rest of the world will assist the process of political liberalization
within the country, and will provide enhanced regional and global security.
Table 3. The Fiscal Situation in the Reform Period
Source: Wong, Christine P.W., Christopher Heady, and
Wing T. Woo. Fiscal Management and Economic Reform in the People’s Republic
of China. Oxford University Press. Hong Kong: 1995, p.24.
Table 5. Government
Budgetary Expenditures
Source:
Wong, Christine P.W., Christopher Heady, and Wing T. Woo. Fiscal Management
and Economic Reform in the People’s Republic of China. Oxford University
Press. Hong Kong: 1995, p.24.
Table 6. Composition of
Tax Revenues
Source: Wong, Christine P.W., Christopher Heady, and
Wing T. Woo. Fiscal Management and Economic Reform in the People’s Republic
of China. Oxford University Press. Hong Kong: 1995, p.24.
Table 7. Changing Role of
the State
Source: Harrold, Peter. China’s Reform Experience
to Date. World Bank Discussion Papers #180. The World Bank:Washington, DC.
1992.
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