The Foreign Economic Relations Department, the
European Affairs Department and the Economic and Social Policy Department are
all included under the Ministry’s “Economic Policy.” They all report to the
Ministry and are essentially charged with the difficult task of improving and
encouraging economic development both home and abroad. The Ministry also
supports a wide variety of business development departments; Small Business,
Business Promotions, Tourism, etc. Though their interactions, cooperation and
communication are limited, they all follow somewhat coordinated general policy
initiatives of the Ministry.
The
1993 Budget
The following budget summary is based on the
1993 budget because that was the first budget elaborated as the independent
Czech Republic. Before the transition, Czech had one of the more state
dominated economies in the CEE. The state controlled almost all economic
activity with government expenditures reaching as high as 65 percent of GDP in
1989.
The 1993 budget focused on a more developed
private sector. The budget is fundamentally influenced by tax reform which will
be discussed in the following chapter.
Revenues
The 1993 budget is based on three main revenues:
the value added and excise taxes (36.9 percent), income tax from legal entities
(25 percent) and social insurance (28.5 percent). The new tax system (and total
restructuring of public finance to benefit local budgets) reshaped the revenue
system and forced budget developers to complete more in-depth estimates of
revenue flows. They were forced to make more accurate revenue predictions.
Total revenues in 1993 reached 419 billion
crowns (26 Kc per $1USD), of which 343 billion went to the state, 41 billion to
local districts and 35 billion to health insurance. Revenue growth was 13.4
percent and local budgets rose 35.2 percent in 1993
Expenditures
A large part of the expenditures for the
Republic encompassed transfers to the people. The largest programs are
pensions, family allowances and sickness insurance. Social transfers were
increased in 1993 to create reserves for expected increases in unemployment.
Expenditures on branches of government like health care, for example, increased
by 50 percent in 1993, simply responding to demand. A move to create the
National Health Fund was instituted out of a revamped payroll tax and transfers
from the central budget to care for the non-working public. The health fund
reduced local spending on health care thereby reducing local transfers.
Expenditures on education and culture also increased by a third over 1992
levels. These additional expenditures were partially offset by a new wage tax targeting
employers and a combination of the following:
1) Savings in compensatory income support and
sickness benefits by a new means tested model;
2) A freeze on subsidies to agriculture,
transportation and mining; and
3) Large cutbacks in real investment, including
a public housing plan begun in 1992.
Transfers from federal accounts to the Czech
government totaled 90 billion crowns, one fifth connected with expiring credits
granted abroad and debts owed by the former Czechoslovakian and CSFR
government. Debt service is a major component of the 1993 budget. The debt
reached 115 billion crowns by 1993. 40 billion crowns were transferred
liabilities of the Czechoslovakian Commercial Bank from operations of the
so-called ‘central foreign currency resources’. Total expenditures on debt
service reached 23 billion crowns in 1993. Due to its size and proportion of
the entire budget, some of those payments were deferred. Eight billion crowns,
the total Czech share of the 1992 debt, was financed through state bonds and
money from the national property fund. Old debt principals were deferred for a
year until 1994.
Tax
Reform
The main elements of the systems prior to 1993
included taxes on enterprise surpluses, payroll and turnover. Wage or income
taxes existed but were largely insignificant. The main function of the taxes
were to transfer enterprise surpluses to the state budget and to sustain the
administratively determined price structures. Tax incentives played no role in
the economic system.
Sweeping tax reforms dominated the budget for
the 1993 year. They included new indirect, direct and property taxes and
modification to the payroll tax including a shift in the tax burden from
corporate incomes to wage incomes. From 1992 to 1994, relative to GDP, the share
of wage based taxes rose while the share of corporate income tax fell and
indirect taxes remained unchanged.
These new direct taxes eliminated earlier
distinctions for taxation of businesses based on forms of ownership and
employment status. The new system of VAT and excise taxes expanded the coverage
of indirect taxes to services. It also mitigated the falling implicit rate in
the earlier turnover tax and condensed the range of standard tax rates.
The reforms promoted investment by lowering the
cost of capital to businesses. This reform featured a significant reduction in
the statutory rate of taxation, standardization and acceleration of allowed
depreciation and a 10 percent credit on investment in selected equipment which
reduced the dispersion in effective taxes on investment activities. This is how
the cost of capital was lowered. The tax allowed the rate of taxation on
enterprise profits to drop from 55 to 45 percent.
A personal income tax was also introduced to
replace the previous network (maze?) of taxes on wages of large enterprises,
the incomes of artists and authors, and the various forms of income derived
from the emerging private sector. The new tax had all wage and self employed
income taxes on a progressive scale with marginal rates from 15 to 47 percent,
standard deductions and additional deductions allowed for social insurance
contributions, children, transportation to work, etc. Interest, dividends and
capital gains were subjected to 15 to 25 percent, encouraging investment only
slightly. Social security and health taxes on wages of 36 percent from the
employer and 13.5 percent employee replaced the old payroll tax of differential
rates. Net taxes on gifts, inheritance and motor vehicles were implemented and
the import surcharge was eliminated. Although the system went through amazing
changes as outlined above, much of these changes were to no avail.
Tax evasion and avoidance
The problem with this system is that these any
tax structures are still relatively easy to get around if one is willing to
operate in the shadows. In the first quarter of 1994, the (23% rate) VAT yield
was 30 percent below initial expectations. The corporate and VAT combined
barely yield 80 percent of original estimations (one suspects that estimate is
high...). Overall, Czech shadow economic activity, though low, is still
significant. Estimate suggest anywhere between 15 and 25 percent of the economy
works in the shadows.
Police claim it is almost impossible to
investigate and prosecute tax violations. The criminal codes do not allow for
them to effectively investigate such activities, and no other effective
mechanisms yet exist. Change in codes and regulations are too complex and far
too frequent. The Ministry of Finance claims that between 1993 and 1994 there was
a change in the tax codes at least every 4 days. An example is the modification
in 1994 of the corporate income tax from 45 percent to 42 percent, a reduction
in the highest marginal personal income tax rates from 47 to 44, and an
increase in allowable expenses. These simple changes required major
modification in software and procedure for the Ministry’s clerks to keep up
with the changes. The Ministry coordinates 12,000 employees in hundreds of
local offices that constantly need to register and update databases with the
latest tax changes.
Due to all the confusion, police estimate they
can only catch roughly 10 percent of tax related crimes. A 1994 law adds to the
difficulties by allowing businesses to keep their records secret. Employees can
be sworn to secrecy regarding certain administrative procedures in firms, like
tax issues. The criminal code states that banks can only be forced to reveal
tax information after initial evidence from a formal investigation. With
no information to go on, investigations rarely reach formal status.
Additionally, a great deal of business transactions are still conducted on cash
basis due to the ease and tradition. This opens very easy avenues for tax
evasion and avoidance as cash is barely trackable.
Many of these tax reforms will become obsolete
as the Czech Republic bids for EU membership. Czech will have to compete with
EU tax codes, one example entails small breweries. Parliament passed a law on
EU guidelines that allows a larger consumption tax on alcoholic beverages to be
granted only to small, independent breweries. Breweries producing less than
200,000 hectoliters per year will be eligible for consumer tax cuts of up to 50
percent. The law sets a progressive rate up to the minimum margin limit.
Though it may seem straight forward, experts are
unsure whether this brings the tax code closer to EU standards or drives them
farther away. Are they protecting small business, providing tax shelters to
favored companies, or preparing for entrance into the EU? Currently no one
knows. The tax reform process is slow. Though much has been accomplished on the
books, no one is really sure what the final outcomes will be. One suspects, as
with many recent development in the Czech Republic, change will gravitate
toward EU standards wherever possible. As the potential for EU membership draws
near, one can expect many of these seemingly confusing tax issues to be
clarified immediately as the Czech Republic attempts to do business with one of
the most developed and powerful economic forces in the world.
Current
Political Economic Considerations: 1996
Perhaps the most exciting chapter of the Czech
political and economic transition is still to come. In November 1995, the Czech
Republic signed a membership agreement with the Organization for Economic
Cooperation and Development. The Czech Republic is the first CEE country to
enter the ‘rich boys club.’ The Czechs furthered their status by recently
declaring that they were now considering themselves a ‘developed’ economy.
Though perhaps a bit premature and self-serving, OECD membership certainly
entitles them to make such a claim. Many more economic issues still need to be
addressed however, before transition can truly be considered complete.
The Czech Republic should reach growth levels of
7 percent this year. That growth needs to be achieved for the next ten years to
simply double their income, and even then they will remain far behind their
western neighbors. Current GDP in the Czech Republic is only about $3500, which
according to the World Bank, ranks them near Malaysia. Fortunately,
unemployment is practically non-existent at about 3.2 percent, the lowest rate
in all of Europe. And the Czech trade deficit runs about 5-7 percent of GDP.
Some experts suggest that rapid appreciation of the crown in recent times is to
blame.
Furthermore, wages are a problem. Though they
remain low, they are rising very quickly even with governmental controls. To
stay competitive Czech business must increase productivity. This tends to be
very difficult without cheaper capital. Though tax designs are in place to
‘cheapen’ capital, it is not immediate nor as effective as necessary. Finally,
average savings rates throughout the CEE are about 18 percent, which is just
half of the very successful East Asian Tigers (and two to three times that of
developed economies). Czech needs to decide how fast and how much more they
will grow in the near future. Regardless of some of these more negative
indicators, Czech has made a significant transition. The numbers above simply
indicate that their journey is not yet complete.
OECD membership is just a small step toward the
Czech’s ultimate goal of EU membership. The Czech Republic is revamping their
policies in order to comply wherever possible to EU regulations, guidelines and
policies in order to facilitate their membership bid. Some of these changes
include a decrease in the number of income tax brackets, decreases in the VAT
from 22 percent to below 20, and the end to all tariffs with EU countries by
1997 (excluding “sensitive products”). These changes are helpful to the Czech
economy but slightly premature. Experts claim they are done solely to impress
the EU application reviewers.
The EU and NATO
EU membership is inextricably tied to NATO
membership. It is important to understand the similarities and differences
between these two organizations, especially as they concern the Czech Republic
and the continuation or completion of the transition. The transition is both
economic and political and therefore should be examined in terms of both EU and
NATO powers. The EU and NATO are arguably the most advance powers economically
and politically in the world. NATO includes the US, while the EU, of course
does not. It is interesting, then, that many claim EU membership is virtually
predicated on NATO membership. This creates an interesting foreign policy
situation for the Czechs. It is not contradictory, but perhaps a bit dispersed
in terms of goals and objectives.
Originally, NATO was created as a response to
the communist threat. Recent discussions between NATO and Russia suggest
this threat no longer exists. So what is NATO’s role today? For the time being,
NATO has a very powerful, though perhaps indirect role in the continuation of
EU expansion. EU membership would bring long term economic and political
stability to the CEE (a NATO objective as well). NATO must continue to work in
association with the EU to bring stability throughout the region to insure that
the “communist threat” is indeed diffused indefinitely. It is not out of the
question that massive economic and political upheaval in the FSU could result
in some nationalist power rising up and posing a serious threat to European
interests. It is in this sense that NATO and EU have a very common, and perhaps
final goal.
Recently while in Detroit campaigning, President
Clinton set a date for NATO expansion. He did not specifically mention which
countries he was referring to, however, he did say that ‘their’ inclusion into
NATO is expected by 1999 (by ‘their’ most experts assume, Poland, Czech and
Hungary). If the Czech Republic becomes a NATO member by the year 2000, EU
membership could come as early as 2003 or 2004.
Therefore, politically, the Czech Republic needs
to satisfy the goals of both EU and NATO. Economically, they need to address
the EU a bit more thoroughly then the US as the EU will be their main trading
partner, but the US will remain a powerful ally, investor and trade partner.
Although membership in either of these prestigious world powers would be remarkable
for a country just a decade after socialist rule, the Czechs need to proceed
carefully.
In joining the EU, the Czech Republic will face
a somewhat unpleasant reality. After years of being the political and economic
leader of the transitional Warsaw Pact countries, they would be immediately
subverted to the lowest status in EU member countries, lower than Portugal.
Though this would enable them to receive EU assistance, both technical and
financial, it would also require them to adapt possibly painful domestic
policies involving increased environmental standards, increased costs and
drastically high competition in terms of quality and markets. It would also
find them having to compete with Hungary and perhaps the most important country
from the EU perspective, Poland. If Czech is forced to split benefits and
favors with Poland and its huge 40 million person markets, they will indeed
have their work cut out for them. Another major problem are the EU legal
requirements for issues like consumer protection.
The benefits to EU membership, of course are
many. The Czech Republic currently meets four of the five requirements for EU
membership under the recent Maastricht Treaty. The Czechs reached EU membership
levels for currency stability, interest rates, debt as a percentage of GDP and
public expenditures as a GDP percentage. They still fall short on the inflation
determinant. 1996 inflation is still at 9.1 percent. This would have to be
lowered to 3.8 percent to conform to EU standards, a daunting task. The country
will continue to reduce taxes wherever possible to stimulate the economy, but
this is increasingly difficult as the Czechs are now in a relatively
comfortable position where increased reductions in taxes would seriously hurt
social benefits.
The EU is currently in the process of
implementing their monetary union. Though this is a fantastic goal for the
Czech Republic, they are not yet in a position to completely abandon their own
monetary policy and rely entirely on fiscal policy. Even though they could not
be permitted to join the EMU upon their EU membership (it has much stricter
requirements than general membership), it would be strange for the Czech
Republic to enter the EU knowing that they are a far cry from EMU membership.
This is not to say it is inadvisable. The Czechs must join the EU at almost any
cost. It is simply a concern worthy of mention. As the EU expands, the core
states will be able to continue a favored status or elite power center,
revolving around EMU involvement and not simply EU membership. This could be
an important strategic leveraging issue for the core states (and a major point
of contention for the Czech Republic as a new member).
There are many concerns and areas for excitement
both politically and economically for the Czech Republic. They are in a very
good position to come out far ahead of anyone’s expectations. Perhaps even
their own. EU and NATO membership will both be achieved within the next 5-10
years, no matter what difficulties are faced along the way.
Conclusions
In just seven years, the Czech Republic
transformed itself from a socialist, Soviet-controlled industrial-based economy
to an increasingly service oriented OECD member and number one contender for
the next wave of EU and NATO expansion in the region.
The Czech Republic’s success can be largely
attributed to its small size and population and its relative ethnic and
religious homogeneity. More important, however, is the Czech determination and
persistence in meeting the challenges of transition. The transition that began
in 1989 entailed a great many hardships. Not all of the CEE countries made it
through the transition so successfully. The Czechs succeeded because they were
able to stick to their plan when most other countries were forced to abandon
for political reasons and popular discontent.
When the reform package became difficult, the
Czechs didn’t revolt, they didn’t strike and they didn’t complain. They showed
remarkable foresight in taking early steps to revamp their tax system and banks,
keep inflation and unemployment and wage increases low, and keep their currency
at stable levels. These were not all easily accomplished. They survived the
difficult times and came out on top of the CEE as the only country to make it
through the transition virtually unscathed. This smooth transition earned their
revolt the nickname, “the Velvet Revolution.”
The Czech Republic is now poised to embark upon
a greater challenge, that of becoming one of the world’s power core with EU and
NATO membership. It will entail further difficulties, but compared with the
accomplishments of the past and their ability to overcome Soviet oppression and
transition from central planning, there is little doubt that the Czech Republic
will succeed in their final step toward complete transition from the USSR to
the EU.
References
Economist.
Country Profile: Czech Republic. The Economist, London. 1996.
Economist.
Saving Graces. The Economist November 9, 1996.
Freiden
Jeffrey. International Political Economy 3rd Edition. St. Martins Press,
NY. 1995, Section IV.
Heady,
Christopher. Tax Reform and Economic Transition in the Czech Republic.
Fiscal Studies, Feb. 1994.
Heady,
Christopher. Tax and Benefit Reform in the Czech and Slovak Republics.
Center for Economics and Policy Research, Discussion Paper Series No. 1151.
March 1995.
Klaus,
Vaclav. The Ten Commandments of Systemic Reform. Occasional Paper 43,
Group of Thirty, Washington, DC, 1993.
Munk,
Eva. Trouble Brews Over Tax Break. The Prague Post, January 18, 1995.
Munk,
Eva. 25 Year Old Sports Car Picking Up Speed. The Prague Post, January
18, 1995.
OECD
Economic Surveys. Czech Republic. OECD, Paris, 1996.
State
Budgets and the 1993 Fiscal Policy. CTK Business News. May 4, 1993.
Svejnar,
Jan. The Czech Republic and Economic Transition in Eastern Europe.
CERGE-EI, Prague, Academic Press, NY, 1995.
Untitled.
CTK National News Wire. December 11, 1992.
Web
Sites: http://www.cerg.cuni.cz
http://www.aifs.org/czoo.htm
http://alta
vista.digital.com - simple query cz repub, transitional economies
http://www.lbs.lon.ac.uk/school/wpaps
http://www.ssc.upenn.edu/east/spring95/janusz
http://www.hiid.harvard.edu/pub
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