Dealers and brokers
in foreign exchange actually set not one, but two, exchange rates for each pair
of currencies. That is, each trader sets a bid (buy) price and an asked (sell)
price. The dealer makes a profit on the spread between the bid and asked price,
although that spread is normally very small.
The underlying
forces that determine the exchange rate between two currencies are the supply and
demand resulting from commercial and financial transactions (including
speculation). Foreign-exchange supply and demand schedules relate to the price,
or exchange rate. This is illustrated in Figure 1, which assumes
free-market or flexible exchange rates.
Figure
1
Before examining
this figure, we need to define two terms. Depreciation (appreciation) of a
domestic currency is a decline (rise) brought about by market forces in the
price of a domestic currency in terms of a foreign currency. In contrast,
devaluation (revaluation) of a domestic currency is a decline (rise) brought
about by government intervention in the official price of a domestic currency
in terms of a foreign currency. Depreciation or appreciation is the appropriate
concept to deal with floating, or flexible, exchange rates, whereas devaluation
or revaluation is appropriate when dealing with fixed exchange rates.
In the dollar-pound
exchange market, the demand schedule for pounds represents the demands of U.S. buyers of British goods, U.S. travelers to Britain, currency speculators, and those
who wish to purchase British stocks and securities. It slopes downward because
the dollar price to U.S. residents of British goods and services declines as
the exchange rate declines. An item selling for £1 in Britain would cost $2.00 in the U.S. if the exchange rate were £1/$2.00 U.S. If this exchange rate declined to £1/$1.50 U.S., the same item is $.50 cheaper
in the United States, increasing the demand for British goods and thus the
demand for pounds. The supply schedule of pounds represents the pounds supplied
by British buyers of U.S. goods, British travelers, currency speculators, and
those who wish to purchase U.S. stocks and securities. It slopes upward because
the pound price to British residents of U.S. goods and services rises as the $
price of the £ falls. Assuming an exchange rate of £1 /$2.00 U.S., a $2.00 item in the U.S. costs £1 in Britain. If this exchange rate declined to
£1/$1.50 U.S., the same item is 33 percent more expensive in Britain,
decreasing the demand for dollars to buy U.S. goods and thus reducing the
supply of pounds. The equilibrium exchange rate in Figure 1 is £1/$2.00 U.S. The amounts supplied and demanded by the market participants are in balance.
Figure
2
To understand better
the schedules, several of the factors that might cause these curves to shift
are discussed next. If there is a decrease in national income and output in one
country relative to others, that nation's currency tends to appreciate relative
to others. The domestic income level of any country is a major determinant of
the demand for imported goods in that country (and hence a determinant of the
demand for foreign currencies). Figure 2 shows the effects of a decline
in national income in Britain (assuming all other factors remain constant). The
decrease in British income implies a decrease in demand for goods and services
(both domestic and foreign) by British people. This reduction in demand for
imported goods leads to a reduction in the supply of pounds, which is shown by
a leftward shift of the supply curve in Figure 2 (from S to S). If the exchange rate floats freely, the
British pound appreciates against the U.S. dollar. If the exchange rate is artificially
maintained at the old equilibrium of £1/$2.00 U.S., however, a
balance-of-payments surplus (for Britain) likely results.
Figure
3
In Figure 3,
an initial exchange-rate equilibrium of £1/$2.00 U.S. is assumed. Now presume the rate of price inflation in Britain is higher than in the United States. British products become less attractive to U.S. buyers (because their prices
are increasing faster), which causes the demand schedule for pounds to shift
leftward (D to D). On the other hand,
because prices in Britain are rising faster than prices in the U.S., U.S.
products become more attractive to British buyers, which causes the supply
schedule of pounds to shift to the right (S to S). In other words, there is an increased
demand for U.S. dollars in Britain. The reduced demand for pounds and the
increased supply (resulting from British purchases of U.S. goods) mandates a newer, lower, equilibrium exchange rate. Furthermore, as long as
the inflation rate in Britain exceeded that in the United States, the British
pound would continually depreciate against the U.S. dollar.
Differences in
yields on various short-term and long-term securities can influence portfolio
investments among different countries and also the flow of funds of large banks
and multinational corporations. If British yields rise relative to others, an
investor wishing to take advantage of these higher interest rates must first
obtain British pounds to buy the securities. This increases the demand for
British pounds shift the demand schedule in Figure 4 to the right (D to D). British investors are also less
inclined to purchase U.S. securities, moving the supply schedule of pounds to
the left (S to S). Both activities raise
the equilibrium exchange rate of the British pound in terms of U.S. dollars.
Figure 4
·
Balance-of-Payments Position
The exchange rate
for any foreign currency depends on a multitude of factors reflecting economic
and financial conditions in the country issuing the currency. One of the most
important factors is the status of a nation's balance-of-payments position.
When a country experiences a deficit in its balance of payments, it becomes a
net demander of foreign currencies and is forced to sell substantial amounts of
its own currency to pay for imports of goods and services. Therefore, balance-of-payments
deficits often lead to price depreciation of a nation's currency relative to
the prices of other currencies. For example, during most of the 1970s, 1980s,
and into the 1990s, when the United States was experiencing deep balance-of-payments
deficits and owed substantial amounts abroad for imported oil, the value of the
dollar fell.
·
Speculation
Exchange rates also
are profoundly affected by speculation over future currency values. Dealers and
investors in foreign exchange monitor the currency markets daily, looking for
profitable trading opportunities. A currency viewed as temporarily undervalued
quickly brings forth buy orders, driving its price higher vis-a-vis other
currencies. A currency considered to be overvalued is greeted by a rash of sell
orders, depressing its price. Today, the international financial system is so
efficient and finely tuned that billions of dollars can flow across national
boundaries in a matter of hours in response to speculative fever. These massive
unregulated flows can wreak havoc with the plans of policymakers because
currency trading affects interest rates and ultimately the entire economy.
·
Domestic Economic and Political Conditions
The market for a
national currency is, of course, influenced by domestic conditions. Wars,
revolutions, the death of a political leader, inflation, recession, and labor
strikes have all been observed to have adverse effects on the currency of a
nation experiencing these problems. On the other hand, signs of rapid economic
growth, improving government finances, rising stock and bond prices, and
successful economic policies to control inflation and unemployment usually lead
to a stronger currency in the exchange markets.
Inflation has a
particularly potent impact on exchange rates, as do differences in real
interest rates between nations. When one nation's inflation rate rises relative
to others, its currency tends to fall in value. Similarly, a nation that
reduces its inflation rate usually experiences a rise in the value of its
currency. Moreover, countries with higher real interest rates generally
experience an increase in the exchange value of their currencies, and countries
with low real interest rates usually face relatively low currency prices.
·
Government Intervention
It is known that
each national government has its own system or policy of exchange-rate changes.
Two of the most important are floating and fixed exchange-rate systems. In the
floating system, a nation's monetary authorities, usually the central bank, do
not attempt to prevent fundamental changes in the rate of exchange between its
own currency and any other currency. In the fixed-rate system, a currency is
kept fixed within a narrow range of values relative to some reference (or key)
currency by governmental action.
National
policymakers can influence exchange rates directly by buying or selling foreign
currency in the market, and indirectly with policy actions that influence the
volume of private transactions. A third method of influencing exchange rates is
exchange control—i.e., direct control of foreign-exchange transactions.
Intervention of a
central bank involves purchases or sales of the national money against a
foreign money, most frequently the U.S. dollar. A central bank is obliged to
prevent its currency from depreciating below its lower support limit. The
central bank should buy its own currency from commercial banks operating in
the exchange market and sell them dollars in exchange. These transactions are
effectively an open-market sale using dollar demand deposits rather than
domestic bonds. Such transactions reduce the central bank's domestic
liabilities in the hands of the public. The ability of a foreign central bank
to prevent its currency from depreciating depends upon its holdings of
dollars, together with dollars that might be obtained by borrowing. Even if a
national monetary authority has the foreign exchange necessary for intervention,
its need to support its currency in the exchange market might be inconsistent
with its efforts to undertake a more expansive monetary policy to achieve its
domestic economic objectives.
Also I’d like to say
a few words about currency sterilization. A decision by a central bank
to intervene in the foreign currency markets will have both currency market and
money supply effects unless an operation known as currency sterilization is
carried out. Any increase in reserves and deposits that results from a central
bank currency purchase can be "sterilized" by using monetary policy
tools that absorb reserves. There is currently a great debate among economists
as to whether sterilized central bank intervention can significantly affect
exchange rates, in either the short term or the long term, with most research
studies finding little impact on relative currency prices.
A market in national
monies is a necessity in a world of national currencies; this market is the
foreign-exchange market. The assets traded in this market are demand deposits
denominated in the different currencies. Individuals who wish to buy goods or
securities in a foreign country must first obtain that country's currency in
the foreign-exchange market. If these individuals pay in their own currency,
then the sellers of the goods or securities, use the foreign-exchange market to
convert receipts into their own currency.
One from the most
important participants of an exchange market is a business bank, which act as
the intermediaries between the buyers and sellers. As already it is known they
can execute a role speculators and arbitragers.
Most foreign-exchange
transactions entail trades involving the U.S. dollar and individual foreign
currencies. The exchange rate between any two foreign currencies can be
inferred as the ratio of the price of the U.S. dollar in terms of each of their
currencies.
The exchange rates
are prices that equalize the demand and supply of foreign exchange. In recent
years, exchange rates have moved sharply, more sharply than is suggested by the
change in the relationship between domestic price level and foreign price level.
Exchange rates do not accurately reflect the relationship between the domestic
price level and foreign price levels. Rather, exchange rates change so that the
anticipated rates of return from holding domestic securities and foreign
securities are the same after adjustment for any anticipated change in the
exchange rate.
The major factor
influencing to the rate of exchange, is interference of government in the
person of central bank in currency policy of the country. The value of a
nation's currency in the international markets has long been a source of
concern to governments around the world. National pride plays a significant
role in this case because a strong currency, avidly sought by traders and
investors in the international marketplace, implies the existence of a vigorous
and well-managed economy at home. A strong and stable currency encourages
investment in the home country, stimulating its economic development. Moreover,
changes in currency values affect a nation's balance-of-payments position. A
weak and declining currency makes foreign imports more expensive, lowering the
standard of living at home. And a nation whose currency is not well regarded in
the international marketplace will have difficulty selling its goods and
services abroad, giving rise to unemployment at home. This explains why Russia made such strenuous efforts in the early 1990s to make the Russian ruble fully
convertible into other global currencies, hoping that ruble convertibility
will attract large-scale foreign investment.
5. Literature used
1. “Money, banking and
the economy” T. Mayer, J.S. Duesenberry, R.Z. Aliber
W.W. Norton &
company New York, London 1981
2. “Principles of
international finance” Daniel R. Kane
Croom Helm 1988
3. “Money and banking”
David R. Kamerschen
College Division
South-western Publishing Co. 1992
4. “Money and capital
markets: the financial system in a increasingly global economy” fifth
edition Peter S. Rose
IRWIN 1994
Summary
A market in national
monies is a necessity in a world of national currencies; this market is the
foreign-exchange market. The assets traded in this market are demand deposits
denominated in the different currencies. Individuals who wish to buy goods or
securities in a foreign country must first obtain that country's currency in
the foreign-exchange market. If these individuals pay in their own currency,
then the sellers of the goods or securities, use the foreign-exchange market to
convert receipts into their own currency.
One from the most
important participants of an exchange market is a business bank, which act as
the intermediaries between the buyers and sellers. As already it is known they
can execute a role speculators and arbitragers.
The exchange rates
are prices that equalize the demand and supply of foreign exchange. In recent
years, exchange rates have moved sharply, more sharply than is suggested by the
change in the relationship between domestic price level and foreign price
level. Exchange rates do not accurately reflect the relationship between the
domestic price level and foreign price levels. Rather, exchange rates change so
that the anticipated rates of return from holding domestic securities and
foreign securities are the same after adjustment for any anticipated change in
the exchange rate.
. A strong and
stable currency encourages investment in the home country, stimulating its
economic development. Moreover, changes in currency values affect a nation's
balance-of-payments position. A weak and declining currency makes foreign
imports more expensive, lowering the standard of living at home. And a nation
whose currency is not well regarded in the international marketplace will have
difficulty selling its goods and services abroad, giving rise to unemployment
at home. This explains why Russia made such strenuous efforts in the early
1990s to make the Russian ruble fully convertible into other global
currencies, hoping that ruble convertibility will attract large-scale foreign
investment.
Dictionary
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